MLB: Phillies' Moyer has been the Marlin Mauler

MLB: Phillies' Moyer has been the Marlin Mauler

The biggest game on Tuesday night's MLB betting board pits two of the frontrunners in the tight N.L. East Division


2008-08-05

The biggest game on Tuesday night's MLB betting board pits two of the frontrunners in the tight N.L. East Division, Philadelphia and Florida. Only 2-1/2 games separates these teams in the standings currently, with the Marlins needing a big series to gain ground. However, if history serves, the deck is stacked against them this evening, as Phillies' hurler Jamie Moyer has had his way with the Fish, going 10-0 lifetime. Not surprisingly, host Philadelphia is a -150 favorite at Sportsbook.com.

Tuesday's game starts a crucial six-game road trip for the Marlins, as after games the next three days against division leading Philadelphia, Florida will then travel to New York to take on the Mets for three games. The team is trying to stay focused on just winning series', while avoiding talk of the tight playoff race.

If history is any indication, the first game on the trip could be the toughest for Florida. Moyer (10-6, 3.79 ERA) has won each of his 10 starts against the Marlins, including three this season, while posting a 3.03 ERA. Still, even he is perplexed as to the reason for his success.

"I've been asked this same question many times," Moyer said when asked about his perfect record against the Marlins. "I don't have an answer. They're all good hitters. They give you good at-bats. They battle. ... It's a matter of making pitches."

Moyer will be trying to lead the Phillies to their eighth win in nine games. They took two of three in St. Louis over the weekend to push their N.L. East lead to the current 2-1/2 game margin.

There are a couple of significant other trends that will be backing Philadelphia in tonight's game, one concerning the -150 betting line, and the other regarding Moyer's performance against divisional foes:

PHILADELPHIA is 28-8 (+14.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 6.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

MOYER is 20-6 (+16.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MOYER 5.4, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*)

Getting the ball tonight for Florida is Josh Johnson, who is making just his fifth start of the season. Though he is just 1-0 with a 4.18 ERA in those starts, his team boasts a perfect 4-0 mark. Making that number even more impressive is the fact that all four wins came against current playoff contending teams in the National League. His last time out, on Wednesday, Johnson was hit pretty hard by the Mets but got the win in a 7-5 shootout.

The best piece on information on today's FREE FoxSheet that favors Florida comes in the form of a Super Situation:

Play Against - Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games.
(58-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (59.8%, +32.2 units. Rating = 2*)

It seems that Florida's best chance tonight is to get to the late innings with a shot to win. In any case, a Marlins' win would sure make things more interesting in the N.L. East.

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