Do not forget about the Run Line in baseball

Do not forget about the Run Line in baseball

Most baseball bettors love wagering on the sport because the results are fairly simple to understand. Bet the money line, and if your team wins, you win. If not, you lose. Bet the total and if there’s more runs scored than the posted number, it’s an over.


2009-08-11

Most baseball bettors love wagering on the sport because the results are fairly simple to understand. Bet the money line, and if your team wins, you win. If not, you lose. Bet the total and if there’s more runs scored than the posted number, it’s an over. If there are less, the result is an under. However, savvy players explore all the other options available on a given day, such as the Run Line or the 5-Inning Line. If you’re not handicapping these options each day, you may be missing out. Take a look at some of the top Run Line information available for Tuesday’s baseball betting board, then head over to the LIVE ODDS page for the latest prices.

For those of you new to the Run Line option, Sportsbook.com offers this type of wager daily. If you bet a Run Line Favorite (-1-1/2 runs), your team has to outscore the opponents by two runs or more. You will get a better price than betting a Money Line, but keep in mind, if your team wins by a single run, you lose that wager. Alternatively, if you bet a Run Line Underdog (+1-1/2 runs), you win your wager if your team wins the game or loses by just a run. You will pay a higher price in this situation than had you bet the Money Line.

Keep in mind that one run games are the most common margin in baseball.

Now on to those top Run Line handicapping tidbits for Tuesday.

Top StatFox Run Line Super Situations for Tuesday, August 11th

1. - (927) TAMPA BAY vs. (928) LA ANGELS
Favoring: LA ANGELS on the run line.
Play On - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (LA ANGELS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (AL), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts (69-21 since 1997.) (76.7%, +47.1 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

2. - (921) TORONTO vs. (922) NY YANKEES
Favoring: TORONTO on the run line.
Play Against - Any team against a 1.5 run line (NY YANKEES) - team with a good OBP (>=.350) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.300) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts (45-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +32.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

3. - (911) PITTSBURGH vs. (912) COLORADO
Favoring: COLORADO on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (COLORADO) - hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 5 games against opponent starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing (37-14 since 1997.) (72.5%, +30.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +3.3 units).

4. - (905) PHILADELPHIA vs. (906) CHICAGO CUBS
Favoring: CHICAGO CUBS on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts (73-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.2%, +48.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (14-8 +6.8 units).

5. - (919) OAKLAND vs. (920) BALTIMORE
Favoring: BALTIMORE on the run line.
Play On - Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 to +160) (BALTIMORE) - allowing 5.2 or more runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 8 runs or more
(36-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.5%, +32.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-4 +4.1 units).

If you were keeping track, the combined record of these Top 5 systems for tonight in 2009 is 26-12 (68.4%), good for +18.2 units of profit. At that pace, the rate of return is almost 48%. See what you’ve been missing?

Top StatFox Run Line Power Trends for Tuesday, August 11th

1. - (923) DETROIT vs. (924) BOSTON
Favoring: DETROIT against the spread.
BOSTON is 0-10 (-12.8 Units) against the run line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 2.6, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 4*)

2. - (905) PHILADELPHIA vs. (906) CHICAGO CUBS
Favoring: PHILADELPHIA against the spread.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-2 (+14 Units) against the run line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 6.7, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 4*)

3. - (903) WASHINGTON vs. (904) ATLANTA
Favoring: ATLANTA against the spread.
WASHINGTON is 5-16 (-17.6 Units) against the run line in road games vs. division opponents this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 4, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 3*)

4. - (903) WASHINGTON vs. (904) ATLANTA
Favoring: WASHINGTON against the spread.
ATLANTA is 2-15 (-13.8 Units) against the run line vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse this season. The average score was ATLANTA 3.7, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)

5. - (917) TEXAS vs. (918) CLEVELAND
Favoring: TEXAS against the spread.
CLEVELAND is 9-36 (-32 Units) against the run line after 2 straight games with 2 or more stolen bases since 1997. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.5, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 3*)

If you were reading closely, you probably realized I tried to sneak one by you. In #3 & #4 above, the trends favor competing teams. This is bound to happen on occasion, and one of the “landmines” of tracking so much data. In any case, the other three games should offer you some strong options for Tuesday.

Make sure you keep all of these games in mind as you build your Tuesday wagering card, and don’t forget about the Run Line option the rest of the way…

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